Appendix: State and federal prison projections and sources
This table, originally created for the briefing Why did prison and jail populations grow in 2022 - and what comes next? provides the furthest prison population projections we could find for state and federal prison systems and the sources in which we found them. Because the briefing is focused on post-2019 population trends, we excluded any projections produced before the COVID-19 pandemic, which dramatically changed prison populations in almost every state.
| State | Projection (furthest date provided) | Does state project more prison growth? | Projection source | Source URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal BOP | 164,769 by 2024 | Yes | Page 4 of the US DOJ’s “Fiscal Year 2024 Performance Budget Congressional Submission, Federal Prison System Buildings and Facilities” (March 2023) | https://www.justice.gov/d9/2023-03/bop_bf_fy_2024_pb_narrative_omb_cleared_3.21.2023.pdf |
| Alaska | None located | |||
| Arizona | None located | |||
| Arkansas | 19,743 by December 2029 | Yes | Page 12 of Division of Correction “Board Report,” Sept. 2023 | https://doc.arkansas.gov/wp-content/uploads/Division-of-Correction-Directors-Board-Report_-September-2023.pdf |
| California | Roughly 82,000 by 2027 | No | Estimated from Figure 2 of the California Legislative Analyst’s Office report, “The 2023-24 Budget: The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation” | https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4686 |
| Colorado | 21,776 at end of Fiscal Year 2029. “The total prison population is expected to increase 6.9% between the ends of FY 2022 and FY 2023, from 16,391 inmates to 17,481. The growth rate is expected to moderate in late FY 2024, continuing throughout the forecast horizon. By the end of FY 2029, the population is expected to reach 21,776 inmates, an increase of 33.1%.” | Yes | Table 1 of CO DCJ “Adult and Juvenile Correctional Populations Forecasts” (Jan. 2023) | https://cdpsdocs.state.co.us/ors/data/PPP/2023-PPP.pdf |
| Connecticut | None located | |||
| Delaware | None located | |||
| Florida | Between 107,700 and 123,600 by 2042. Legislature’s Office of Econ and Demographic Research | Yes | Page 8 of consulting firm KPMG’s report to the Florida Department of Management Services, “Multi-Year Department of Corrections Master Plan” (Nov. 2023) | https://www.flsenate.gov/Committees/Show/ACJ/MeetingPacket/5963/10510_MeetingPacket_5963_2.pdf |
| Georgia | None located | |||
| Hawaii | 788 in 2032 in Oahu Community Correctional Center (one of four state facilities), which reflects a steady decline overall. No statewide projection located. | No | “Oahu Community Correctional Center Population Forecast Final Report” by Pulitzer/Bogard & Associates (Aug. 2021) | https://dps.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/OCCC-Forecast-Report-FINAL-August-2021.pdf |
| Idaho | 1.3% annual growth predicted as of 2021; this didn’t include changes due to COVID-19 but the forecast shows general upward trend. | Yes | “Justice Reinvestment in Idaho: Impact at Seven Years” (Feb. 2022) | https://www.idoc.idaho.gov/content/document/2022_jri_impact_final |
| Illinois | ~31,500 through 2035 | Yes | Estimated from the “projection” graphic from the Illinois Sentencing Policy Advisory Council’s “2023 Baseline Prison Projection” | https://spac.illinois.gov/publications/prison-population-projections |
| Indiana | None located | |||
| Iowa | 9,310 by 2031 | Yes | Page 10 of the Legislative Services Agency’s Dec. 2022 Fiscal Research Brief on “Prison population and capacity” | https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/FRB/1294232.pdf |
| Kansas | 9,353 by Fiscal Year 2031 | Yes | Kansas Sentencing Commission’s “Fiscal Year 2023 Prison Populaton Projection” report | https://cdn.oits.ks.gov/media/docs/sentencinglibraries/reports/fy-2023-prison-population-projection-report.pdf?sfvrsn=435959a8_3 |
| Kentucky | None located | |||
| Louisiana | None located | |||
| Maine | None located | |||
| Maryland | None located | |||
| Massachusetts | None located | |||
| Michigan | 35,076 by Dec. 2027 | Yes | Table 1 of the “Prison Population Projection Report” (Nov. 2023) | https://www.michigan.gov/corrections/-/media/Project/Websites/corrections/Files/Legislative-Reports/2023/Prison-Population-Projection-Report.pdf |
| Minnesota | 9,000 in 2025 | Yes | Article in the Minnesota Reformer, “State prison population expected to shoot up as pandemic court backlog eases” (March 24, 2023) by Deena Winter | https://minnesotareformer.com/2023/03/24/state-prison-population-expected-to-shoot-up-as-pandemic-court-backlog-eases/ |
| Mississippi | 22,500 by the end of 2023. “If this growth continues at the same rate through 2023, that population would surpass 22,500 for the first time since 2010.” | Yes | Article in Mississippi Today, “Mississippi prions may soon exceed capacity” (Dec. 6, 2022) by Jerry Mitchell | https://mississippitoday.org/2022/12/06/mississippi-prisons-capacity/ |
| Missouri | None located | |||
| Montana | None located | |||
| Nebraska | None located | |||
| Nevada | Female population will grow 9.5% through Fiscal Year 2025 while the male population will grow 4% over the same time. | Yes | Nevada DOC’s “Biennial Prison Population and Bed Projection” | https://doc.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/docnvgov/content/About/Statistics/Forecast_and_Planning/B2023-82-LA.pdf |
| New Hampshire | None located | |||
| New Jersey | None located | |||
| New Mexico | “High counts” through 2032 (4,822). These generally show a slow decline for males and slight increase for females through 2032. | No for males, yes for females | New Mexico Sentencing Commission, “New Mexico Prison Population Forecast: FY 2022-FY2032” (July 2022) | https://nmsc.unm.edu/reports/2022/new-mexico-prison-population-forecast-fy-2022-2032.pdf |
| New York | None located | |||
| North Carolina | 33,680 by 2032 | Yes | Table 1 of “Prison population projections: Fiscal year 2023 to fiscal year 2032” from the North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission (Feb. 2023) | https://digital.ncdcr.gov/Documents/Detail/prison-population-projections-fiscal-year-…-to-fiscal-year-…-2023-2032/5768038 |
| North Dakota | 2,185 by 2030 (This is the total anticipated bed need middle estimate minus the 3% “classification and peaking” factor the analysts added.) Figure 0.5 p. 56 | Yes | Figure 0.5 on page 56 of “Master Plan 2021-2030” from The Moss Group (consulting firm) | https://www.docr.nd.gov/sites/www/files/documents/Reports_Public/ND DOCR Master Plan 2021-2030.pdf |
| Ohio | None located | |||
| Oklahoma | None located | |||
| Oregon | 13,397 in 2033 (an increase of 9.4%) | Yes | Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, “Correctons Population Forecast” for October 2023 | https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/Documents/DOC-forecast-202310.pdf |
| Pennsylvania | None located | |||
| Rhode Island | 2,932 by 2034. Cites a report by consultants JFA Associates, “which sees the Rhode Island population behind bars rising 2.5% annually over the next decade.” | Yes | Article in the Providence Journal, “Forecast: RI prison population will grow almost 30% by 2034. What’s driving the increase?” (Dec. 5, 2023) by Patrick Anderson, citing RI DOC statistics for “last week.” | https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/state/2023/12/05/ri-prison-population-to-climb-30-percent-in-next-decade-after-falling-to-35-year-low-during-pandemic/71720651007/ |
| South Carolina | None located | |||
| South Dakota | 4,296 by 2041. “Within the next 20 years the total population is expected to increase by 26%.” | Yes | Figure 4 from the SD DOC’s “2022 Statistical Report Population Projections” | https://doc.sd.gov/documents/SDDOC 2022 Statistical Report.pdf |
| Tennessee | None located | |||
| Texas | 6% increase between 2023-2025. The populations discussed in the report are not measured the same way as those used in the Bureau of Justice Statistics publication, so are not directly comparable. | Yes | Texas Legislative Budget Board, “Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections: Fiscal Years 2023 to 2028” (Feb. 2023) | https://www.lbb.texas.gov/Documents/Publications/Policy_Report/7688_Population_Projections_February_2023.pdf |
| Utah | None located | |||
| Vermont | None located | |||
| Virginia | 26,986 by end of Fiscal Year 2028. The state predicts more jail growth than prison growth. | Yes | Virginia Secretary of Public Safety and Homeland Security, “Report on the Offender Population Forecasts (FY2023 to FY2028)” (Oct. 2022) | https://rga.lis.virginia.gov/Published/2022/RD622 |
| Washington | None located | |||
| West Virginia | None located | |||
| Wisconsin | 23,249 Average Daily Population for Fiscal Year 2024-25 (ends June 30, 2025) | Yes | Paper 295 from Legislative Fiscal Bureau (June 6, 2023) on “Inmate Populations, Prison Contract Bed Funding, and Population and Inflationary Costs (Corrections - Adult Institutions)” | https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/misc/lfb/budget/2023_25_biennial_budget/bpbd/107_june_8/108_corrections_adult_institution |
| Wyoming | None located |
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