Compiling historical community supervision data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) required drawing from a range of sources. Together, these sources provide a high-level overview of community supervision in each state over the decades.
For this research, however, we wanted to look at the data more closely. We started by comparing the two counts of probation and parole populations BJS publishes as “year end” data for each year in consecutive annual reports: a count for December 31 of a given year, and another for January 1st of the following year (i.e., the following day). 23 Comparing these numbers can reveal dramatic changes, which often signal issues with the data. (Substantial changes from December 31 to January 1 generally would not reflect policy change or reform, and instead point towards some combination of delayed data gathering or reporting from agencies that respond to the survey, shifts in data definitions, expanded sample coverage, or other methodology changes. Depending on the year, these may not be described in detail in the BJS reports or datasets.) Where we saw inexplicable differences between the December 31 and January 1 counts, we then tracked down state or local data sources that could fill in the gaps. This led to major corrections in some states.
These kinds of data corrections are especially important for anyone trying to track the impacts of policy change or continuity. Errors may persist in states that do not provide public data on probation or parole, that fail to track information about misdemeanor probation or pretrial supervised release, or that fail to track people who are supervised by private probation firms. Again, please reach out to us if you have any updated or improved data, and we will do our best to include it.
To make the data series, we combined BJS data sources for community supervision as follows:
In most Prison Policy Initiative analyses, we use the total number of people under supervision derived from an end-of-year count, but following BJS guidance, we used the most recently-published versions where possible. 25 In other words, we would take a January 1, 2010 number to stand-in for end-of-year 2009. The one exception was that we used the December 31, 2024 data for end-of-year 2024 (the 2024 report is the most recent available as of publication).
For calculating rates per 100,000 residents in each state and year, we used annual resident population estimates based on U.S. Census population data processed for researchers by the National Cancer Institute’s SEER program, covering 1969-2024. Data are reported at the county level by year and we summed to the state level.
For the incarceration data used in state-by-state graphics and published in the tables, we combined data from various sources on state prisons, local jails, and the federal incarceration system, which we detail below. Apart from the distinctive federal system and the District of Columbia, there are two main types of incarceration regimes in the states. In 44 states, there are separate locally-operated jails for people who have been arrested and are facing criminal charges or short sentences, and there are state-operated prison systems for people with longer sentences. Six states (Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawai\0x02BBi, Rhode Island, and Vermont) have “unified” state-operated prison systems that also provide jail-like pretrial detention. 26 The District of Columbia was a unified system in practice until a 1997 law change, then became a unique, local-jail-only system, with anyone with a longer sentence doing their time in a federal prison. 27 Incarceration via the federal criminal legal system involves both the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) for longer sentences and detention and shorter sentences arranged by the U.S. Marshals Service (USMS), which takes place in local jails as well as federal, private, and state prisons.
For each state, we combined incarceration data on state prisons and local jails, making sure to avoid double counting if a state held people for the state prison system in jails. 28 Similarly, we removed people incarcerated by federal agencies from local jail counts in each state, using data from our 2024 briefing. 29
For states with unified state-local incarceration systems, we use National Prisoner Statistics (NPS) data for total incarceration numbers. For the District of Columbia, we compiled and combined data from a variety of sources. 30
For federal incarceration, to properly account for the overlap between U.S. Marshals (USMS) and the BOP, we use the data provided in the NPS to split the federal prison jurisdiction count into two parts: (1) people sentenced to a year or more, and (2) the jail-like portion of people that are either unconvicted or sentenced to less than a year. That jail-like portion of the BOP generally covers people also under USMS jurisdiction, but is an incomplete count of people incarcerated or detained by USMS because it is only those held in BOP facilities. So, we discarded that NPS partial count and collected data on the full scope of USMS detention from various historical documents. 31 The resulting data better represents the various parts of the state and federal criminal legal and immigration detention systems.
BJS annual reports and datasets usually contain state-specific notes indicating changes in reporting or other issues that might impact comparability. After a careful review of these notes, we realized that some data may have been erroneous estimates or reflected major changes in data reporting or counting practices but not underlying caseload changes. In recent years, not all large changes were explained with notes. Additionally, in reports for 2023 and 2024, we identified mathematical errors in some appendix tables, which incorrectly calculated percent changes in the number of people on probation in some states. 32 In order to address these problems, we looked at the year-over-year data and compared the trend lines to alternative sources of information. We also contacted BJS staff with questions, and sought data directly from state agencies that respond to the Annual Surveys of Probation and Parole (ASPP).
After these reviews identified problem areas, we moved forward in one of three ways: using an alternate source, discarding and interpolating, or using the best available data to construct an estimate.
As described below, some state data series might have more than one kind of correction.
The “all other” incarceration category on that pie chart includes immigration detention, involuntary commitment, territorial prisons, jails in Indian country, and military facilities.
For the historical tables and graphics, we do not make adjustments for people with dual status cases. Data on these dual status cases are not reliably available for each state over time, but in cases where we do have detailed data, the percentage is usually quite small. Many states do not have capacity to report this information, and thus corrections (if any are made) would be for a subset of states. Since our other publications involving more recent data make adjustments to address people that may be on both parole and probation, there may be some differences in this report.
State-specific notes
For each state listed below, we provide notes on any corrections that we have made to probation or parole estimates.
California
Probation counts for the entire series are sourced directly from California Department of Justice statistical reports or open data. From 1978-2001, we use the statewide totals from Table 41 Adults on Active Probation as of December 31, 1966-2015 published in Crime in California 2015. For 2002-2024, we use the county-level Adult Probation data reported in California’s Open Justice data portal, summing Felony and Misdemeanor counts for the beginning of January in the following year, within each county, and then to the state level. This allows us to identify any counties that have need for further corrections: San Francisco reported no probation data for 2002-2005, so we use 2006 values to stand in. We replace San Joaquin County’s 2002 value with the 2003 number, and for San Bernardino County’s in 2014, we use the end-of-year number from December instead of the start of January 2015.
Delaware
The 2023 BJS report on probation shows an unexplained 85% rise in the number of people on probation from 2022 to 2023 that is not reflected in the Delaware Open Data on community supervision.33 Because the issue appears to have been resolved in 2024, we use the December 31, 2022 count for year-end 2022, and the January 1, 2023 count for year-end 2023.
Georgia
Georgia counties started using private probation agencies in 1992. BJS only started collecting data covering people under Georgia’s private probation supervision in 1999. Thus, we exclude data from BJS reports for 1992-1998 for Georgia and interpolate to replace year-end estimates from 1992 to 1997. As an example of the scale of the problem: the number of people on probation in Georgia for December 31, 1998 was reported at 151,865. On January 1, 1999, when private probation was included, the number of people on probation was reported at 278,669. We use this number for year-end 1998. This addresses a problem in the 1990s, when private probation growth was not accounted for, but there are other known issues with Georgia’s probation data.
As BJS has acknowledged, Georgia’s probation rate is likely inflated by duplicated records.34 That’s likely because people with multiple private probation cases, or cases in more than one of the 159 counties in the state, get counted twice or more. Georgia has many small counties, and it’s relatively common to have a case in more than one county. We have not made any corrections to account for this, but if we could reduce the number to address the problem, it could make a big difference because the probation rate is so high in Georgia and it is a relatively large state.
Illinois
For Illinois, we took care to harmonize data over the years to ensure that it measured supervision consistently, including both people supervised on pretrial release and sentences to probation, and not counting people on administrative-only probation. We took special care to confirm that probation in Cook County (Chicago) was accurately counted, cross referencing numbers in the Administrative Office of the Illinois Courts data submissions to the Bureau of Justice Statistics with Cook County budget data.
Illinois probation data in BJS reports over the years are especially complicated because of shifting definitions that include (and then exclude) people with administrative-only probation cases, and problems with delayed statistics from counties across the state leading to inaccurate publications. This is especially an issue for data from Cook County, where the number of people under misdemeanor probation supervision or pretrial release make up a relatively large portion of people under community supervision in the state. Fortunately, the Administrative Office of the Illinois Courts publishes detailed probation data for each year, and publishes the data that they submit to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.35
In most, but not all, years from the 1980s through the end of 2016, BJS counted both people on active as well as people on inactive, administrative-only probation. This changed in the combined 2017-2018 probation report, when BJS stopped counting those administrative cases in the probation total for December 31, 2018, reporting the active probation number as the total number for December 31, 2018.
Under the new counting rules for 2018-2021, BJS published data that almost exactly matched the report that was provided by the Administrative Office of the Illinois Courts. They combined the number of people on active adult probation population with those on pretrial supervision, per the usual counting rules, and did not count anyone with an administrative-only case.
Meanwhile, starting in 2010 and continuing through the end of 2021, Cook County’s misdemeanor probation agency tended to report lower caseloads than were actually supervised. A review of budgets for the county’s Social Service Department indicates no substantial caseload drop off in this period, but statistics published by the Administrative Office of the Illinois Courts do show a substantial decline in 2010, followed by a spike in 2022. These changes reflect differences in reporting, not substantially different numbers of people on probation or community supervision.36
Finally, in 2023 and 2024, BJS departed from the standard measures and narrowed the definition again, excluding people on pretrial supervision that previously had been counted. (Some of this may have been due to delayed reporting by courts across the state.) Fixing the data to make it comparable required getting an estimate for Cook County misdemeanors, counting pretrial supervision, and making an adjustment to remove people on inactive probation supervision in earlier years (1980s and early 1990s).
Indiana
Detailed, court-level and statewide probation statistics are published annually by the Indiana Judicial Branch through their Judicial and Probation Reports. We use their January 1 count to represent the year-end count for the prior year. These corrections involved only minimal changes to the dataset, and were done for 2003-2024.
Kansas
Kansas probation data had errors in the 1980s and early 1990s as well as from 2022-2024. In notes for the 1993 BJS report, Kansas indicated that they had reported 6-7,000 youth cases, and had been reporting youth cases previously. To correct for this, 6,500 cases were removed in 1993, and we scaled this to remove a portion of cases from 1987-1992 to taper this reduction down to zero.
In the 2024 BJS Probation and Parole report, Kansas had the largest decline in people on probation, from 13,670 on January 1, 2024 to 9,050 on December 31, 2024. This did not seem plausible so we reached out to the Kansas Department of Corrections and the Kansas Judicial Branch to confirm; they explained that the issue was from a data system migration and not a reduction in caseloads. If anything, caseloads will likely be reported at higher levels in the future. Thus, to smooth out the state’s trendline, for year-end 2022, we use the December 31, 2022 count, and for year-end 2023, we use the December 31, 2023 count. We carry forward the December 31, 2023 count for year-end 2024.
Maryland
The numbers of people on probation in Maryland for 2011-2024 were calculated using data provided by the Maryland Department of Public Safety & Correctional Services in response to our public information request. Because the data were for fiscal years 2011-2025, we adjusted to reach end-of-year estimates. For example, for year-end 2024 we applied the percentage of overall cases supervised that were probation to the total numbers of supervision cases at the end of fiscal years 2024 and 2025, and took the average. We then added to this figure the average of the Drunk Driver Monitoring Program’s caseload counts for end-of-fiscal years 2024 and 2025.
Massachusetts
The data for 1980-1984 and 2002-2008 were not comparable to other years,37 so we discarded them and interpolated data for 1979-1985 and 2001-2009. Then, noting inaccurate estimates in BJS’ 2023 Probation and Parole report for year-end 2022 and 2023, we instead use data from the Massachusetts Probation Services Research Department’s Caseload Review dashboard (excluding juvenile cases).
Michigan
Probation data prior to 1985 were not comparable to later data, so we replaced them with values that reflected interpolated growth from 39,875 in 1978 to 99,365 in 1985.
Minnesota
The year-end 2020-2024 counts of people on probation come from Department of Corrections’ 2024 Probation Survey (excluding juvenile cases). This addresses an imputation problem in the 2022 BJS report for Minnesota.
Mississippi
For 2022-2024, we replaced the counts of people on probation with estimated values based on numbers from the Department of Corrections from early January of each year. To account for the difference between BJS definitions and the Department’s, we added to those January numbers the average difference between the state report count and BJS report count from 2017 to 2022.
New Hampshire
Noting unexplained low numbers for the state in the 2020 BJS Probation and Parole report, we use the December 31, 2019 count for year-end 2019 instead of the January 1, 2020 count.
New Jersey
Notes on probation data for New Jersey in BJS’s 2015 and 2023 reports indicate that shifting reporting practices and definitions make the topline number of people on probation incomparable over time. Specifically, we see a large increase between the 2014 and 2015 report, and a 77% decrease (from 123,300 on December 31, 2022 to 28,170 on January 1, 2023) between the 2022 and 2023 reports. To correct for this and construct a roughly comparable set of data, we use the archived BJS data that indicates how many people were on active probation supervision in New Jersey at year-end 1989 and 1992-2014. This makes the data comparable with the numbers published in the 2023 and 2024 reports. (We discard data for 1988 and 1990-91, when active probation supervision was not published.) Because of changes that started in the 2015 BJS data collection, we calculated the difference between the overall probation count for January 1, 2015 (137,124) and the active probation supervision count in 2014 (43,901). This difference of almost 80,000 is the extent of the definition shift between 2014 and the 2015-2020 period. Thus, we subtract that difference from the topline reported probation counts for 2015-2020 to calculate our estimates. Starting with year-end 2022 (measured as January 1, 2023), we use the BJS reported number for New Jersey.
New York
Statistics on probation in New York State are collected by the Division of Criminal Justice Statistics (DCJS), and end-of-year counts of people under supervision are published each year. These numbers are more consistent than the numbers published by BJS, which have within-year fluctuations that are not substantiated by subsequent reports. This data from DCJS also helps to address a problem related to counts of probation cases versus counts of individual people on probation. While corrected by the state in submissions to BJS in 2003, the numbers throughout the 1990s and early 2000s reported by BJS are substantially inflated and do not represent accurate counts of people on probation. Thus, we turned to DCJS and found that the peak probation count in the state was in 1998 at nearly 139,000.38 Because we lack specific estimates for 1987 through 1997, we use linear interpolation between 1986 and 1998.
Ohio
Because of definition changes that make the data not comparable, we adjusted the counts for 1978 and 1979, and then replaced 1980-1983 with interpolated values.
Oklahoma
No central agency in Oklahoma is responsible for data collection, and data reported to BJS shifts definitions over time and is not internally consistent without corrections. The state Department of Corrections (DOC) supervises most people sentenced with felony probation; others may be supervised by municipal courts, District Attorneys, and private probation agencies. BJS reports have not reliably presented data on all parts of this system, and historically, they have generally understated the number of people on probation in Oklahoma. We combine the BJS data on state felony probation and some misdemeanor probation agencies with our estimate of District Attorney probation to create an estimate covering those types of probation for 2006-2024.
Oklahoma District Attorneys operate local probation (known as DA Supervision), which is a large share of probation in the state. DA Supervision programs were authorized and first started in 2005, and in Oklahoma City, DA supervision has crowded out DOC probation as the preferred form of sentence.39 DA supervision is possible for anyone not committed to the Department of Corrections, and both felony and misdemeanor convictions are eligible. It is unclear to us whether BJS has ever tried to collect data on DA Supervision populations. We use charts from state budget requests and other documents showing supervision fee revenues to deduce a lower-bound estimate of people on DA supervision in each year.40
Municipal courts also oversee probation, and BJS does seem to collect data from them, in recent years in particular. Private probation also operates in the state, sometimes via municipal courts. These cases are not collected anywhere that we can find in public reports. Our estimate combines the BJS data on state felony probation and some misdemeanor probation agencies with our estimate of District Attorney probation.
Oregon
The Oregon Department of Corrections maintains statewide statistics on people under community supervision, from parole and post-release supervision to probation, diversion, and conditional discharge. They provided January 1 counts from 1998 to 2025, which we used as year-end probation counts for 1997 to 2024. The result is quite similar to the BJS probation series but substantially corrects BJS data irregularities in 2017 and 2022-2024.
Pennsylvania
Our estimate comes from data published by two state agencies: The Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency’s annual report on Pennsylvania County Adult Probation and Parole (which includes 117,000 people on probation, probation with restrictive conditions, accelerated rehabilitative disposition, pretrial bail supervision, as well as roughly 12,000 absconders from probation), and the Department of Correction’s (DOC) Monthly Parole Statistics report (which includes about 5,000 people on special county probation).
Pennsylvania provides community supervision through county agencies as well as the state department of corrections, and is currently undergoing substantial reforms after Act 44 was passed in 2023. Unlike most other states, the state DOC provides both probation and parole, as do county agencies. The counties also provide other kinds of community supervision, such as pretrial bail supervision, accelerated rehabilitative disposition, and county probation without verdict. In order to better understand trends in community supervision in Pennsylvania, we calculated estimates directly from state statistical reports from the Department of Correction, the Board of Probation and Parole, and the Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency. That is because BJS has shifted between different definitions over the years, dropping substantial numbers of people that were still under probation supervision.
From 2004-2019, it appears that BJS had been counting a wider range of statuses as being on probation: county probation, county intermediate punishment (or restrictive conditions), county accelerated rehabilitative disposition, county probation without verdict, county pretrial bail, absconders on those statuses, plus inactive county probation, as well as the DOC’s special probation. From 2020-2023, the count narrowed to ignore people on restrictive conditions, county accelerated rehabilitative disposition, county probation without verdict, and county pretrial bail, and appeared to count people on probation from other states supervised by the Pennsylvania DOC. This means that the BJS count for people on probation in Pennsylvania dropped 42% from 172,052 on December 31, 2019 to 99,798 on January 1, 2020. BJS maintained this narrower definition of probation in 2021-2024.
In order to make a comparable data set, we use a more comprehensive definition that counts people on county probation supervision under a broad set of statuses: restrictive conditions, county accelerated rehabilitative disposition, county probation without verdict, and county pretrial bail; however, we do not include those on inactive probation. This provides a count that is substantially higher than the most recent BJS estimates.
South Carolina
Our estimates for South Carolina probation are modified for a few years: for year-end 2006, we do not rely on the January 1, 2007 number of 43,284 people on probation published by BJS and instead use the December 31, 2006 number of 38,353. In 2010, South Carolina revised their reporting methods and submitted updated data correcting January 1, 2009 from 40,621 to 35,165. Because there are no updated data for year-end 2007, we estimate it as the average of January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2006 (36,759).
Because of a large unexplained increase in the number of people on probation reported in the 2023 BJS Probation and Parole report, we use the December 31, 2022 count instead of the January 1, 2023 count.
Tennessee
In Tennessee, people on felony probation are usually supervised by the Department of Correction. Additionally, in 1985 the state created a “Community Corrections Program” that covers people charged with a non-violent felony. That supervision is done by a variety of agencies: county agencies, nonprofit organizations, and human resource agencies (quasi-governmental agencies that provide social services created pursuant to the Human Resource Agency Act of 1973). The community corrections programs have statistical reporting obligations, and the Department of Correction produces regular reports on the number of people under their supervision.
For people convicted of misdemeanors the probation system is more complicated. There are no statewide statistical reporting obligations, and it does not appear that the Administrative Office of the Courts has reliable information on misdemeanor cases. The 1985 Community Corrections Act and the 1989 Criminal Sentencing Reform Act both encouraged the creation of probation options at the local level, especially for people who would otherwise be incarcerated in a jail for a misdemeanor. The law also allows private probation firms to operate in the state. In some counties, private agencies operate as the sole probation authority; in others, they operate as a supplemental agency. In addition to private firms there are county agencies and the quasi-governmental human resource agencies.
Thus, for Tennessee, we estimate the number of people on probation in local agencies as well as private probation firms for the years 1992 through 2024. For 2000 through 2024, we have been able to collect supplemental data. State probation data for felony charges is from the Tennessee Department of Correction’s Felon Population Update for Probation and Community Correction. Misdemeanor probation is run by local governments, who can operate their own probation agency or contract with a private firm; BJS started collecting publicly-run local probation data, but they do not collect private probation data.
For 2006-2023, we can directly estimate the private probation counts using data about fees paid to the Tennessee Department of Commerce and Insurance’s Private Probation Services Council. The FY 2006-2015 data are from the 2018 Human Rights Watch report on private probation, FY 2014-17 data are from a 2018 state audit, and 2019-2023 are from a 2024 state audit. We interpolate 2018 using 2017 and 2019 data, and carry forward the 2023 estimate for 2024. Leveraging sample changes in BJS data collection from 2022 to 2023 (when they began collecting data from local public agencies), we were able to estimate local public probation in the state for year-end 2023 and year-end 2024, and then used these data to backfill an estimate of total local probation (both public and private).
Probation data prior to 1983 were largely undercounts and not comparable to later data, so we interpolate the data from a rough estimate of 13,500 for 1978 to 23,300 in 1983.
Utah
In Utah, probation is provided by the state corrections department, local agencies, and private probation firms. It appears that the number of people on probation in Utah has been understated for many years, possibly until very recent Bureau of Justice Statistics reports. For many years, BJS only collected data from the Utah Department of Corrections (DOC), Adult Probation and Parole, which supervises most felonies and some serious misdemeanor cases. Utah authorized private probation firms in 1990 but these have never been tracked by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Within Utah, there appears to be no reliable centralized source of information on the private probation data, and the state does not have infrastructure currently in place that collects the monthly reports that private probation firms are required to provide to sheriffs listing information on all people supervised. Further, local probation agencies have been created within the last decade and are not well understood or regulated, sometimes developing informally within a sheriff’s department unit, taking on felony cases and seeking to supplant the state’s Adult Probation and Parole (Cache County), other times within a county’s Department of Human Services (Salt Lake County).
Because Utah has such sparse data, we removed the most recent BJS data for 2022-2024 and replaced it with the number of people on probation supervised by the Utah DOC Adult Probation and Parole. This is a clear under-estimate, but it allows for historical comparison. It seems likely that this will change in the future, and we hope to update these data when more information is available.
Virginia
Our estimates account for both state and local supervision. BJS began collecting local probation data in recent years, so we attempted to collect more historical data. State probation counts are from the Department of Corrections and local probation counts were obtained via FOIA from the Department of Criminal Justice Services. We combine the local probation and state probation estimates for 2010-2024, and then smooth the line from 1997 to 2010.